What are the trajectories of change within the multidimensional relationship between Russia, the US, the European Union and the post-Soviet space? Dr Oliver Gnad considers plausible narratives about how this quadrilateral relationship – and the world – will look like after the end of the next policy cycle ending around the year 2024.
2024 marks not only the end of the next presidential term in Russia but also the end of Donald Trump's second term in office (or the end of the first term of a subsequent incumbent in the White House). By that time we will either see the US and Europe drifting further apart (i.e. US with Europe or the US in Europe) or finding a new transatlantic narrative.
Also, the year 2024 marks the midterm of the EU budgetary cycle (2020-2027) which will heavily reflect the EU's ambition to come to grips with a Common Defence and Security Policy. More importantly, developments within the EU will decide upon the question whether the Union will be able to consolidate itself, whether it will enlarge further (Balkans), whether it will deepen (monetary union, tax union, foreign and defence policy, immigration) or whether it will end up as a two-speed Europe – either by will or force.
Articles and analysis
Tuesday, 28 July 2020 22:55
by Dr Gary Busch (June 2020)More Articles...
- The EU Common Security and Defence Policy
- Direction of travel : Shared defence amongst the EU27 (EDGE1)
- Health crisis and security: an opportunity for Europe
- Europe's evolving strategic landscape
- 2019 in the High Arctic (ED6)
- Breaking the Island Chains
- Turkey's military expansion in Libya
- US uses drone to kill Iran's Soleimani - but who was he?
- The geopolitical significance of rare earth elements
- Defining the Arctic : Parameters, Institutions and Policies (ED1)
- EU and the Cockpit of the World - developing a vision (ED5)
- Jihadism and justice – out of balance?
- Where are US aircraft carriers?
- China - a new polar power (ED4)
- Navigation in the Arctic (ED3)
- Northern Exposure : Geopolitics and indigenous survival in a warming Arctic (ED2)
- Disruptors and Demagogues--- IISS Strategic Survey 2019
- The burning of the Amazon - and what might be done
- Ecuadorean government under threat?
- Hybrid aggression and electoral processes
- Europe's Southern Border - an update
- History and conflict : How can history help us to understand the here and now?
- UK Defence and Security Exports figures for 2018
- Removing extremist groups from social media platforms is an effective way to limit their influence
- Would Iran respond to jaw-jaw rather than war-war?
- The Navy's Newcastles - three and a half centuries of service
- Information warfare and online communities
- NATO's failed strategy
- Algeria - transition or more of the same?
- From criminals to terrorists and back?
- Down the "Memory Hole"
- "Blowback": Interning Uyghurs, Destabilizing China
- Jobs for veteran
- Can we please learn from history?
- Looking around the world
- Whatever happened to Scotland's allies in the "Darien Gap"?
- Time for a European Army?
- Xinxiang: China’s “Chechnya in the making”
- The EU as an Arctic actor
- Growing the contribution of defence to UK prosperity
- Is U.S. quitting Iran nuclear deal legal? What's Trump trying to achieve?
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard and the Leadership's strategic mistakes
- "Listen closely and you can hear the national socialist train coming": The rise and rise of Germany's far-right party, the Alternative for Germany
- The Holocaust in Public Memory
- Shotgun Uschi's rocky road : German defence policy in the new coalition
- China's Assertiveness in the Paracel and Spratly Islands: A Sign of Weakness, Not Strength
- Keeping the peace with Russia
- The old enemy
- Mohammed Bin Salman's risky reforms
- The Afghanistan Conflict and Future Prospects of Peace: A Brief Analysis
- The "Empty Fortress": Beijing's Twin Dilemmas of the Western Regions and Han Identity
- Increasing challenges - IISS Military Balance 2018
- SDSR : Another chapter
- Are increased French defence spending plans a wake-up call for Germany?
- The Only Force That Can Beat Climate Change Is the U.S. Army
- Migration Wars : Interventionism in the Age of Migrations
- Central Asia in the 21st Century: The Enduring Importance of Clans and Tribes
- A deadly menage a trois
- ISIS'S RISE....AND FALL?
- War between Saudi Arabia and Iran: The Implications for Riyadh
- Maghreb revisited (4) - Algeria
- Maghreb revisited (3) - Libya
- Maghreb revisited (2) - Morocco
- Maghreb revisited (1) - Tunisia
- Secession is as American as apple pie
- Making Francis Urquhart look like Eddie the Eagle?
- Humpty Dumpty in slow motion?
- North Korea's capabilities and intentions – a summary
- Checkmate: China's containment of US containment policy
- The US Military, Foreign and Security Policy
- The North Korean missile crisis : War or strategic patience?
- Daesh and oil laundering: The next chapter
- A new approach to European migration policy and security challenges.
- Developments in MENA area over the last 6 months
- Beyond the Islamic State
- The Iran nuclear deal revisited
- An update on Libya
- The unacknowledged crisis in Central America:
- Al Jazeera at the centre of the Qatar Crisis
- The impact of tribes in Yemen and Libya
- Simmering conflicts: The IISS Armed Conflict Survey 2017
- Britain must not sacrifice defence for Aid
- Will maritime tensions tear Singapore and China apart?
- "Lone wolf" attacks - context for the Parliament murders
- What comes after Da'ish (ISIL)?
- Still relevant today : Chan Santa Cruz and the British-Mayan Alliance of the Nineteenth Century
- The future of the Armed Forces
- We are leaving the European Union, but we are not leaving Europe.
- Is the West supporting a War Criminal in Libya?
- How the Democrats should respond to Trump's election
- Trump and the Counter-revolution against Cultural Marxism
- An opposing view of policies on Ukraine
- Threats and risks - the "big picture"
- As NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels...
- Dealing with Russia, 70 years after the Kennan telegram.
- A Crisis of Unexpected Consequences? : U S policy towards Iran
- A forgotten country in Central America
- Defeating ISIS in Mosul will not save Iraq from fragmentation and instability
- Saudi Arabia's relationships under strain
- Where do we stand? The defence implications of Brexit