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By Roger Green, Principal Reviewer, U K Defence Forum
The paper reviewed below is radically different to the UN IPCC Report on Climate Change that was overtly political in its objectives, the UK government's Stern Report that started from a presumption of adverse climate change and Al Gore's lauded film 'The Inconvenient Truth' that could be considered selective in its content and slightly naïve in its presentation. This paper challenges the mind-set created by these works. Although the paper often refers to the US situation for its examples, the conclusions that it draws are universally applicable.
The paper is available in pdf and html formats at http://www.petitionproject.org/.
GLOBAL WARMING - A SCIENTIFIC REVIEW OF THE
"ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE"
Authors: Arthur Robinson, Noah E Robinson and Willie Soon.
In 2007, the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons published the title paper originating from the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine. The paper is a 12-page review article in straightforward language about the 'human-caused global warming' hypothesis and does not present any new discoveries. It forms a basis of a petition signed by 30,000 scientists (including nearly 10,000 PhDs) who beg to differ with the claimed scientific consensus on global warming. Before publication it was circulated widely within the scientific community for consultation and comment before undergoing peer review by the publishing Journal.
The UN IPCC review that is widely quoted as an authoritative source on climate change "is authored by about 600 scientists who were not permitted power of approval as is normal with scientific papers. The final text neither conforms to nor includes many of their comments. Instead it conforms to the UN objective of building support for world taxation and rationing of industrially useful energy."
This paper offers significant challenges to the UN IPCC report's conclusions and predictions. The essential facts given in this review are all referenced to peer-reviewed scientific research literature. The analysis addresses the following components, extractions from which are briefly summarised below:
Atmospheric and Surface Temperatures. The Earth has been warming at an average rate of 0.5 degree per century. The fluctuations recorded correlate with the fluctuations in the activity of the sun. Neither the trends nor fluctuations correlate with hydrocarbon usage. Sea levels and glacier lengths have risen three times and declined twice since 1800 and are shown to be benign and the result of natural processes.
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Human production of carbon dioxide is negligible when compared with the reservoirs existing in the oceans and biosphere. At ultimate equilibrium, human produced carbon dioxide will have an insignificant effect on these reservoirs. However, the rates of approach to equilibrium are slow enough to cause a transient atmospheric increase. The sources and amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are of secondary importance to the hypothesis of 'human-caused global warming'. It is the burning of hydrocarbons that is the issue whereby carbon dioxide is merely an intermediate stage in a hypothetical mechanism by which 'human-caused global warming' is said to take place.
Climate Change. The whole range of observed climate changes are gradual, moderate and entirely within the bounds of ordinary natural changes that have occurred during the benign period of the past few thousand years. There is no indication whatever in the experimental data that an abrupt or remarkable change in any aspect of the natural climate is beginning or will take place.
Global Warming Hypothesis. The 'human-caused global warming' hypothesis depends entirely upon computer model generated scenarios of the future. There are no empirical records that verify either these models or their flawed predictions. The hypothesis and the computer calculations that support it are in error. They have no empirical support and are invalidated by numerous observations.
World Temperature Control. World temperature is controlled by natural phenomena. Should the Earth become too warm, the inexpensive blocking of the sun by placing particles in the upper atmosphere would be effective, whereas world energy rationing would not work. If the temperature becomes too cold we have no means of response other than to maximise nuclear and hydrocarbon energy production and technological advance. This would help humanity adapt and might lead to new mitigation technology.
Fertilisation of Plants by Carbon Dioxide. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, plant growth rates increase. As they lose less water in these conditions they can grow in drier climates. Animal life that is dependent upon plants for food increases proportionally. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is required for life by both plants and animals. It is the sole source of carbon in all of the protein, carbohydrate, fat and other organic molecules of which living things are constructed. Without atmospheric carbon dioxide none of the life on Earth would exist. Water, oxygen and carbon dioxide are the three most important substances that make life possible; they are surely not environmental pollutants.
Environment and Energy. The single most important human component in the preservation of the Earth's environment is energy. Abundant and inexpensive energy is required for the prosperous maintenance of human life and the continued advance of life-enriching technology. The estimated relative costs of electrical energy production vary according to nation and underlying assumptions but overall nuclear is the lowest cost, increasing through coal, gas and wind to the ultra expensive micro wind and solar generation. Future inventions in energy technology may alter the relative economics of the different methods of energy generation but these inventions cannot be forced by political decree or wished into existence. However, if 'conservation' is practised so extensively as to be an alternative to hydrocarbon and nuclear power, it is merely a politically correct word for "poverty". Energy is the foundation of wealth. Abundant and inexpensive energy means no practical limit to world food production and an unlimited supply of fresh water from sea water desalination. In newly developing countries the energy they need must largely come from hydrocarbon sources. There is a moral imperative that this energy be available otherwise they will slip backwards into lives of poverty, suffering and early death. World energy rationing would herald the stifling of human ingenuity and the tragic curtailment of technological advance. In addition to the human loss, the Earth's environment would also be a major victim; inexpensive energy is essential to environmental health.
The conclusions reached in this paper raise comprehensive questions over both the EU's Green Taxation initiatives and green policies generally. This scientific analysis demonstrates that the components of the environment are subject to overwhelming natural influence and not the intervention of man. Human activities will not, and cannot, effect long-term climate change. The transient rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide is providing an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals and our children will enjoy a far greater diversity of plant and animal life than we now appreciate.