Strategic Premise
A major conflict erupts in the Indo-Pacific following a Chinese move against Taiwan. The United States commits the bulk of its high-end naval and air assets to the Pacific theatre, prioritising deterrence and sea control. Russia does not formally enter the war, but assesses that US strategic bandwidth is stretched, NATO political cohesion is under strain, and the threshold for escalation in Europe is temporarily higher.
Moscow therefore decides to exploit the opportunity to reshape the maritime balance in the North Atlantic, while indirectly supporting China by forcing the United States to divide attention across two theatres, writes Robin Ashby Rapporteur for the High North Observatory
The objective is not decisive confrontation. It is to create systemic pressure: to complicate reinforcement planning, to stretch NATO maritime resources, and to reinforce the security of Russia's northern bastion.
This scenario does not attempt to predict a specific course of events. It illustrates one plausible pathway through which existing structural dynamics in the High North and North Atlantic could be exploited under conditions of wider strategic distraction.
O'DWYER Warrant Officer James Patrick (Jim) O'Dwyer, 27 April 1925 – 28 January 2026.
The 67th edition of the Military Balance was launched at the London based International Institute for Strategic Studies on 24th February, the 4th anniversary of the start of the Russia – Ukraine conflict. Nick Watts was there for Defence Viewpoints. He writes: This was a sobering backdrop against which to be considering the current military – strategic environment.
