Innovation, Sovereignty and Collaboration:

Lessons for the Allied Defence Industrial Base

Delivered by Robin Ashby at a Manchester Metropolitan University Security & Technology Conference, 16 May 2026

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The Signal

On the night of 8 April 1940 — the eve of Germany's invasion of Denmark — A.P. Møller, founder of what would become the Maersk shipping empire, and his son Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller faced a decision. They knew the invasion was imminent. Of the 46 ships in the Maersk fleet, 36 were outside Danish waters. Those captains needed instructions (writes Robin Ashby)

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On May 3rd 2026, Dr Hans-Christian Anderson delivered the sermon at the annual memorial service for Denmark's War Saiors (1940 - 1945) at St Nicholas Cathedral, Newcastle upon Tyne.

We have gathered today to celebrate the Danes merchant navy seamen who volunteered in 1940, to sail for the allies.

They defied orders from their government to return to Denmark. Instead, almost all of them sailed to allied ports and offered their ships and their services to the allies.

What followed, for most of them, was five years away from their homes and their families. Five years of sailing all over the world with all kinds of cargo, on all the world's oceans.

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FIRE FROM THE SEA: RUSSIAN NAVAL LAND-ATTACK MISSILES

Systems, Platforms, Production and Combat Use in Ukraine 2022-2025

 

CONFIDENCE LEVELS USED IN THIS PAPER: [HIGH] Confirmed from multiple open-source/official records. [MEDIUM] Single or fragmentary sourcing; probable but not confirmed. [LOW] Assessed from technical/contextual inference; treat with caution. [ASSESSED] Western/Ukrainian intelligence estimate, unverified.

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Russia's search for reliable access to the world's oceans has long been shaped by the interaction of geography, climate, and strategic necessity. Much of the country's coastline lies along northern seas that freeze in winter or are distant from major maritime trade routes. As a result, Russian rulers—from the era of Muscovy to the present—have repeatedly sought secure maritime outlets that allow year-round naval activity and access to global commerce.
The pattern across three centuries is consistent: Russia expands toward warm water. Every war, every annexation, every alliance of convenience has this logic somewhere within it. Understanding this imperative helps explain not only Russia's historical expansion but also its contemporary interventions from Syria to Africa.

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Zashchitnyy Kupol: Russia’s Protective Three-Ocean Dome along the Northern Sea Route — Redux. Part of the Northern Fleet's operational roles.

12 March 2026

In 2015 it was reported that Russia had plans to build 13 aerodromes and six cantonments in the Arctic. The string of new and refurbished bases between the  Atlantic and the Pacific via the Arctic Ocean was described by Northern Fleet commander Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov as a “protective ocean dome”.

In late 2019 Vice-Admiral Alexander Moiseyev confirmed that additional S-300 and S-400 systems would be deployed across the Russian Arctic to create a comprehensive anti-aircraft umbrella across the region.

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Nuclear Deterrence

“A world without nuclear weapons may be a dream but you cannot base a sure defence on dreams. Without far greater trust and confidence between East and West than exists at present, a world without nuclear weapons would be less stable and more dangerous for all of us.”

These words were spoken by Margaret Thatcher on her visit to Moscow on March 30, 1987. We now know that the days of the Soviet Union were numbered. In the post-Cold War period, many hoped for a new era in international relations, and so it seemed for a period. But the increasingly belligerent tone taken by Vladimir Putin has ended that hope. Following the full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Thatcher’s words echo down to us across the years.

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SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND THE ARCHITECTURE OF FAILURE: LESSONS FROM THE SOUTHPORT INQUIRY

A first report that should be read in every security agency, police service and threat assessment unit — not just in the United Kingdom
Everything described in the Southport Inquiry Phase 1 Report is connected. The failures are not discrete events in a chain; they are mutually reinforcing systemic weaknesses that compounded one another over years. That is the central lesson, and it is one that practitioners in the defence and security community will recognise immediately — because they have seen it before, at home and abroad. This short series will also address "before" and finally ask the question "What next?"

By Euan Grant, Senior Research Associate, U K Defence Forum

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