There is an old observation about Russian strategic thinking: "Russians play chess. When they move pawns it doesn't mean that's what they are moving." The remark, made by a Moscow-based businessman discussing the difficulties of interpreting Russian behaviour, was intended as advice to Westerners not to take individual developments at face value. Whether or not the stereotype is fair, it is an appropriate warning when looking at Vladimir Putin's sudden appearance on the Kuril Islands.

Putin's visit to Iturup on 13 August was his first to the disputed Southern Kurils. Japan regards Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and the Habomai islets as its Northern Territories; Russia has controlled them since the final days of the Second World War. Tokyo immediately protested the visit, which came just two days before Japan's annual commemoration of the end of the Pacific War.

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Naked in the Conference Chamber

It is an immutable law of politics; you know you're on your way out when people start saying nice things about you. Keir Starmer's appearance at the NATO Summit 7-8th July in Ankara was marked only by the silence of any significant comments about the UK by Donald Trump. He reserved his ire for the Spanish. Everybody was too polite to tell Keir Starmer that he was naked. Aneurin Bevan made a memorable speech to the Labour Party conference in 1957 opposing a motion to back unilateral nuclear disarmament. He warned that by removing what leverage the UK government had in the international arena, it would be like sending the Foreign Secretary 'naked into the conference chamber'.

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Part Two: Implications, Parallels and the Sea That Cannot Be Cleared

By Robin Ashby June 2026

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The industrial and procurement fundation - Building the Arsenal That Collective Defence Requires

Curated by Robin Ashby

May - July 2026

This paper — the fourth and final in the Unleashing the Paper Tiger series — addresses the industrial and procurement foundation without which the institutional architecture of Paper II and the capabilities of Paper III cannot be built or sustained. It draws directly on the Eurodefense Working Group 18-30's 2023 analysis of European defence procurement from UK perspectives, extending that work into the broader architecture that Article 42.7 requires. Papers I, II, and III established the strategic case, the institutional architecture, and the capability layers respectively.

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Capabilities - Missiles, Drones, Space, Sanctions and the Neutrals

Curated by Robin Ashby

May - July 2026

This paper — the third in a series of four — addresses the capability layers that give the institutional architecture of Paper II its operational substance. Papers I and II established the strategic case and the institutional framework. Paper IV addresses the industrial and procurement foundation. This paper covers missiles and air defence; drones and the lessons of Ukraine; Galileo as the space-based navigation layer; sanctions as economic collective defence; and the contribution framework available to the EU's neutral and non-aligned member states.

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The Institutional Architecture - connecting the Assets That Already Exist

Curated by Robin Ashby

May - July 2026This paper — the second in a series of four — addresses the institutional architecture needed to give Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union genuine operational weight. Paper I established the strategic case: the closing window, the hybrid threat scenarios, the five gaps, the command and control debate including the February 2026 JFC command transfer, and the decision-making reforms available within existing treaty law. This paper addresses what the collective defence architecture should concretely look like: the communautaire assets that already exist and need connecting; the bilateral and minilateral frameworks that provide working models; and the maritime dimension. Paper III addresses capabilities and Paper IV the industrial and procurement foundation.

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Paper I of IV - the Strategic Case
Why Article 42.7 Must Be Made Real
Curated by Robin Ashby May-July 2026

"The citizens of Europe are tired of the strategic babble of their leaders... They should stop talking and start acting." — Frederic Mauro, IRIS, October 2021

Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union is the EU's mutual defence clause — legally binding on all member states, invoked once, and largely unknown outside specialist circles. It is, in the common diplomatic phrase, a paper tiger: a commitment that exists on paper without the institutional machinery, military capacity, or political credibility to make it real. This paper — the first in a series of four — addresses the strategic case: why the clause matters, what threatens its credibility, and what structural gaps must be closed. Papers II, III and IV address the institutional architecture, capabilities, and the industrial and procurement foundation respectively.

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A Companion Paper to the Black Sea Fleet Series by Robin Ashby. Reseach support by Claude.ai

The Sea of Azov is the smallest of the seas that touch European Russia, and for a decade now the one most completely under one flag. It has one door. Understanding who holds the key tells you most of what you need to know.
I. The Lock
The Kerch Strait is four kilometres wide at its narrowest point, and every vessel bound for Mariupol, Berdyansk, Taganrog or Rostov-on-Don passes beneath the Crimean Bridge or does not pass at all.1 Russia has controlled both shores since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and built the bridge, completed in 2018 at a cost of $3.7 billion, in defiance of a 2003 treaty intended to leave the strait and the sea itself as shared 'historical internal waters' of Russia and Ukraine.2

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