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AI logoThe Black Sea Fleet - From Regional Power to Constrained Force

Part One: The Fleet, the War, and the Attrition Campaign

Curated by Robin Ashby, Chair, Eurodefense EU-Russia Observatory

The Inheritance of Sevastopol

Russia's Black Sea Fleet entered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 at the height of its post-Soviet capability. Sevastopol — seized, along with the rest of Crimea, in 2014 — had been transformed in eight years from a leased base operating on borrowed time into a heavily fortified naval complex. New submarines had been commissioned. New corvettes carrying Kalibr cruise missiles had replaced ageing Soviet hulls. Coastal defence batteries covered the approaches. The fleet's air component had been reinforced. By almost any measure, the Black Sea Fleet in early 2022 was the most capable it had been since the Soviet Union's dissolution.
It was also, as events proved, profoundly vulnerable to a form of warfare its commanders had not adequately anticipated.

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It's often unwise to draw any conclusions in the early stages of a war. "It will all be over by Christmas" (Great War 1914) and "Kiev will fall within days" (Februaty 2022) are among many examples. But an article by retired Indian Lt General Romi Dhawan 4 hours before this article posted seemed worthwhile nevertheless. To assess its validity it was run through ChatGPT5.2. This is shown after the original text, An initially sceptical analysis was quickly refined as new events were reported. So this article is either perceptive or presumptive. History will judge... (Robin Ashby, Curator)

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We've been tracking developments in Iran's Nuclear & Missile Programmes for nearly 20 years. Here's the latest, where diligent work by researchers has been replaced by ChatPGT. Sources include ft.com, trtglobal, en.wikipedia.org, thenationalnews.com. apnews,com, global-worldscope.blogspot.com, iranprimer.com, ginc.org, thetimes.co.uk, iranwatch.org, commonslibrary.parliament.uk, iaes.org, reddit.com, landfonline.com, time.com, nypost.com

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