Articles and analysis

Commentary - January 2026

Commentary NW 95537d11-af3f-45c3-9657-a9695f1f7296 No war this year

At least, not between the USA and its NATO 'allies'. The recent turbulence over Greenland has been very instructive. In the short term the prime minister has managed to preserve the UK's position diplomatically, balancing the need to remain close to the USA and not annoying our European partners.

The careful measures to reset the relationship between the UK and the EU have not had to be junked in favour of the US. But this isn't over. The European response to Trump's Greenland demarche was initially confusion, then denial. Finally European NATO was able to 'persuade' Trump that there is a better way of doing business.

2025 in the High Arctic

Executive Summary â€” Arctic Security & Environmental Change, 2025

1. Accelerating great-power competition and security strategic focusÃ‚Â

The Arctic has increasingly been defined as a strategic arena for geopolitical competition in 2025. Intelligence assessments and defence leadership statements emphasise that the Arctic is transitioning from a comparatively cooperative region to a theatre of great-power contestation, with Russia, the United States and China intensifying activities and strategic planning in the High North. A recent risk assessment by Danish Defence Intelligence highlights this trend, noting that the regionâ€™s importance has grown as ballistic trajectories and missile routes are directly relevant to global defence postures via the High North.

NATOâ€™s top military commander has explicitly stated that the Arctic is now a front line of strategic competition, reflecting rising concerns about allied deterrence, Russiaâ€™s military posture and broader security linkages.

Geopolitical Crossroads Part 1

UKDF 2026 small Crossroads:
The 1862 Great Sioux Uprising and its geopolitical implications for today

A two part series by Joseph E. Fallon

Part 1
Lincoln's template for the dispossession of American Indians

One of the first Indian treaties to be broken by the United States was a colonial treaty with the Wea tribe. In 1751, "the Wea and the Piankashaw signed a treaty with the British and accepted an alliance with the Pennsylvania colony." With the outbreak of the American Revolution, the Wea allied themselves with the British. It was a fateful decision. As the war ended, the Wea wrote to London. "In endeavoring to assist you, it seems we have wrought our own destruction."

By a series of new treaties with the new republic, the Wea were forced further and further West. The process of dispossessing the Wea took seventy years. In 1862, Lincoln created a template to expediate dispossession of American Indians in months instead of decades.

Articles and analysis

Commentary - January 2026

2025 in the High Arctic

Geopolitical Crossroads Part 1

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