By Joseph E. Fallon and Robin Ashby
Is Russia a threat in the Baltic area? S.B. Ivanov, former Russian Federation Defence Minister, and Deputy Prime Minister, discussing the meaning of "threat" a decade ago, said that its content had drastically changed from the purely standard military threats to the so-called uncertainty factors, which are understood by the Russian Federation Defence Ministry to mean the situation, conflict or process, "which can bring about a significant change of geopolitical environment in the regions of Russia's vital interests, or can directly endanger its security."
The Baltic Sea is a major theatre in what's being described as the new Cold War between NATO and Russia. It is a relatively small body of water on the northeastern edge of the Atlantic Ocean surrounded by landmasses in nearly all directions. Its surface area is slightly larger than Finland's and its mean depth is only 54 metres. The Baltic Sea is connected to the world oceans only by the narrow Danish straits, which connect it to the North Sea. The Danish straits are formed by two straits immediately next to each other: The Öresund strait on the coast of Sweden and the Belt Sea on the coast of Denmark, which is comprised of the Skagerrak and Kattegat
The outbreak of a major war in Europe has been a shock to many. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 has shaken the west out of its post Cold War torpor. The increasing belligerence of Putin's Russia led NATO members to increase their readiness, including the deployment of forces close to the eastern borders of the Alliance. It has also meant a recapitalisation of equipment in many NATO members including the UK. In July 2023 Nick Watts was able to visit an AS 90 self-propelled gun that the UK has gifted to the Ukrainian armed forces. They were in a location somewhere in southern Ukraine.