Articles and analysis

AI logoPaper I of IV - the Strategic Case
Why Article 42.7 Must Be Made Real
Curated by Robin Ashby May-July 2026

"The citizens of Europe are tired of the strategic babble of their leaders... They should stop talking and start acting." — Frederic Mauro, IRIS, October 2021

Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union is the EU's mutual defence clause — legally binding on all member states, invoked once, and largely unknown outside specialist circles. It is, in the common diplomatic phrase, a paper tiger: a commitment that exists on paper without the institutional machinery, military capacity, or political credibility to make it real. This paper — the first in a series of four — addresses the strategic case: why the clause matters, what threatens its credibility, and what structural gaps must be closed. Papers II, III and IV address the institutional architecture, capabilities, and the industrial and procurement foundation respectively.

Read more...

AI logoA Companion Paper to the Black Sea Fleet Series by Robin Ashby. Reseach support by Claude.ai

The Sea of Azov is the smallest of the seas that touch European Russia, and for a decade now the one most completely under one flag. It has one door. Understanding who holds the key tells you most of what you need to know.
I. The Lock
The Kerch Strait is four kilometres wide at its narrowest point, and every vessel bound for Mariupol, Berdyansk, Taganrog or Rostov-on-Don passes beneath the Crimean Bridge or does not pass at all.1 Russia has controlled both shores since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and built the bridge, completed in 2018 at a cost of $3.7 billion, in defiance of a 2003 treaty intended to leave the strait and the sea itself as shared 'historical internal waters' of Russia and Ukraine.2

Read more...

Commentary NW 95537d11-af3f-45c3-9657-a9695f1f7296Dropping the pilot

In the famous Punch cartoon of March 1890, Otto von Bismark is seen leaving the ship (of state) having done so much to bring about the creation of modern Germany. As he leaves, he is watched by a young Kaiser Wilhelm ii. Perhaps the analogy is a little contrived, but dropping Keir Starmer who made Labour electable again, watched by a 'young' Andy Burnham, comes to mind.

Read more...

More Articles...