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Part One: The Fleet, the War, and the Attrition Campaign

Curated by Robin Ashby, Chair, Eurodefense EU-Russia Observatory

The Inheritance of Sevastopol

Russia's Black Sea Fleet entered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 at the height of its post-Soviet capability. Sevastopol — seized, along with the rest of Crimea, in 2014 — had been transformed in eight years from a leased base operating on borrowed time into a heavily fortified naval complex. New submarines had been commissioned. New corvettes carrying Kalibr cruise missiles had replaced ageing Soviet hulls. Coastal defence batteries covered the approaches. The fleet's air component had been reinforced. By almost any measure, the Black Sea Fleet in early 2022 was the most capable it had been since the Soviet Union's dissolution.
It was also, as events proved, profoundly vulnerable to a form of warfare its commanders had not adequately anticipated.

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Vigilant GeneralThe Role of French Nuclear Deterrence in Fostering a New European Strategic Culture for Genuine European Strategic Autonomy
An executive summary of a paper by General Jean-Marc Vigilant, published by IRIS May 2026.
 
Context and Purpose
Europe has absorbed a dual geostrategic shock: Russia's ongoing aggression against Ukraine, prosecuted under the shadow of nuclear deterrence, and the increasingly visible divergence between American and European strategic interests. Against this backdrop, the erosion of international law and the return of Great Power competition challenge the traditional European pacifism born from the near self-destruction of the first half of the twentieth century, while international security institutions — foremost the UN — no longer fully perform their role of regulating interstate relations and resolving conflicts peacefully.

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Commentary NW 95537d11-af3f-45c3-9657-a9695f1f7296"Events, dear boy, events"

Many Commentary readers will have been following the recent tribulations of the UK's Prime Minister. This is not the forum for any political partisanship, other than to reiterate the government's own words about defence being an engine of growth. The inertia which has gripped the government since it came to office in July 2024, as far as defence policy is concerned, has been well chronicled. It would seem that this frustration is shared by many.

The incremental announcements about equipment purchases by the MOD that have been wrung out of the government, along with the signing of security agreements with allies, is little short of performative window dressing. However, the current leadership process resolves itself, the 'new' prime minister – even if it is the present incumbent – must bring forward the Defence Investment Plan, and get a grip on the Treasury, to be more creative about how to fund the defence needs of the UK.

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