Articles and analysis

Transcript of a lecture given by Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG, KCVO - 15th October 2007

Sir Crispin Tickell is Director of the Policy Foresight Programme at the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization. His main interests are in the fields of environment and international affairs. Most of his career was in the Diplomatic Service, culminating in his appointment as British Permanent Representative to the UN (1987-90). He then became Warden of Green College, Oxford (1990-97), President of the Royal Geographical Society (1990-93); and Director of the Green College Centre for Environmental Policy and Understanding (1992-2006). Sir Crispin is the author of 'Climatic Change and World Affairs', first published in 1977.

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The NY Times recently reported on a draft paper by American intelligence agencies which conclude that Afghanistan is in a "downward spiral". In addition, large doubt remains whether the government can curb the influence and presence of the Taliban in the country. The National Intelligence Estimate is set to be finished after the November elections in the US and is set to be the most comprehensive American assessment in years on the situation in Afghanistan.

The assessment is the first since the Taliban regained strength there beginning in 2006 and began regain large amounts of territory.

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By a staff reporter

A recent unattributable briefing in London by a strategist on the Obama/Biden team highlighted the problems facing the US military to replenish and replace stocks trashed by years of operations in hot and sandy places.

In the two-front conflict, there are 16-18,000 US troops committed, with a surge in prospect as stability decreases. Iraq is stable after a fashion, but a draw-down of the 160-180,000 troops there may decrease this. Pakistan is a joker in the pack, with some expecting a coup there sooner rather than later.

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